MARKET 02 · ENERGY & WATER1/8
PRICE CHECK 1 — THE MICROWAVE
You ask ChatGPT one question. Somewhere, a data center hums. In microwave terms: is one ChatGPT question more or less electricity than running your microwave for ten seconds?
More than 10 microwave-seconds?
ANSWER TO SEE WHERE AMERICA TRADES
THE RECEIPTS — EVERY FACT IN THIS MARKET, SOURCED (SPOILERS)
- More than 10 microwave-seconds? [America: 75¢ YES · floor est.] About ONE second of microwave (~0.3 Wh, per Epoch AI). The viral “10x a Google search” stat was a 2023 estimate that stuck around after it stopped being true. Most people miss this one high.
- Do the data centers out-drink golf? [America: 68¢ YES · floor est.] Golf — it isn't close. US data centers directly consume roughly 3% of what golf courses pour on the grass. The honest asterisk: golf's thirst is flat, and the machines' is compounding fast.
- More than 1,000 home-years? [America: 60¢ YES · floor est.] Way more — roughly 4,600 home-years (~50 GWh). Training is the splurge; answering your questions is the pennies. Both are growing. The IEA projects the world's data centers will out-consume all of Japan by 2030.
- More than 50 drops? [America: 70¢ YES · floor est.] About FIVE drops (0.26 mL), plus nine seconds of TV worth of electricity. The bottle-of-water stat counts the water evaporated by power plants upstream. Both numbers are honest; they're just answering different questions. Now you know the trick.
- Do you take the deal? [America: 29¢ YES · Gallup, 2026] 71% of Americans now say they'd oppose a data center in their area — more opposition than a nuclear power plant gets (53%). The machines have a NIMBY problem, and it's growing faster than the grid.
- Pass the law? [America: 78¢ YES · floor est.] Calorie labels barely changed what people order — but they changed what restaurants dared to put on the menu. Disclosure rules mostly discipline the kitchen, not the customer.
- Moratorium on new data centers in drought states? [America: 55¢ YES · floor est.] 46% of Americans worry “a great deal” about data centers' environmental impact (Gallup 2026) — ranked above crypto, meat production, and air travel in an AP-NORC poll. The desert is where this fight gets real.
- Is the wager worth it? [America: 38¢ YES · floor est.] This is the whole debate compressed: is AI's energy use a cost or an investment? US data centers used 4.4% of the nation's electricity in 2023, headed for as much as 12% by 2028. The wager is being placed either way.
Sources: Gallup — data center NIMBY (2026) · Epoch AI — energy per ChatGPT query (2025) · Google/MIT Tech Review — Gemini prompt footprint (2025) · IEA — Energy and AI (2025) · LBNL — US data center energy report (2024)